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American economy depressed by flu pandemic

Economic Depression The long predicted influenza pandemic appears to be upon us, with more than 20 cases reported in the US at this writing. Last year, the World Bank predicted a pandemic would affect the world economy by a 5pc drop in output.

The US government has declared a health emergency, with Homeland Security chief effectively saying “Don’t panic.”

The danger is a kind of pandemic protectionism spreads around the world, adding to its economic woes. Already pork from Mexico has been banned by China and Russia. The ban has now been extended to Texas, California and Kansas. We can be sure that is only the beginning.

A serious 1918 type of pandemic, which killed millions around the globe, would really challenge the world economy and set it back a decade at least.

Let us hope it doesn’t come to that.

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Gordon Brown goes to Washington

Uncle Sam As Gordon Brown, former British Chancellor, now Prime Minister, heads for Washington to try to convince the new adminstration to set up a “global regulatory system” the Americans should ask themselves why they should believe him when he failed so spectacularly for 12 years.

At home, Brown has come in for stern criticism in recent days for his failure to stop the immense and growing disaster occurring in the British economy.

Lord Turner, new head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), blames Brown when Chancellor for the failure of regulation which led to catastrophic losses at Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS.

“They existed within a political philosophy where all the pressure on the FSA was not to say ‘why aren’t you looking at these business models?’, but ‘why are you being so heavy and intrusive, can’t you make your regulation a bit more light touch?’,” he said.

“We were supervising people like HBOS within a particular philosophy of the way you do regulation, which I think in retrospect was wrong. I think (the FSA’s actions were) a competent execution of a style of regulation and a philosophy in regulation which was, in retrospect, mistaken.”

Similarly, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King claims he has been shouting warnings for years about risky lending without any response from Brown.

It is on the record that Brown delivered a speech in the City urging them to take even greater risks.

The Prime Minister is now trying to cover up the mess by throwing the kitchen sink at sacked RBS boss Fred Goodwin’s enormous pension. Significantly this was done as the Treasury unveiled its third bank bailout in the form of a £325 billion insurance scheme for desperate RBS.

Meanwhile the head of the Audit Commission, Steve Bundred, warned that public debt is at “Armageddon levels” and will exceed two-thirds of the entire annual economic output of the country.

Send this man back with a flea in his ear.

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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac nationalized

Yesterday the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, nationalized the underwriters of half of America’s vast mortgage industry, now in precipitate decline.

Henry Paulson
Secretary Henry Paulson at news conference yesterday

Two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have had their books underwritten in the short term by the Government.

Fannie and Freddie are curious institutions. They don’t lend money but underwrite half of U.S. mortgage lending. This amounts to a staggering $5.2 trillion (£2,940 billion) of debt. The two companies are a kind of buffer zone between mortgagees and the real world of finance.

Since the Great Depression, the Government has tacitly made it known that it will support Fannie and Freddie through any adversity. Now that wink has become explicit — until the end of 2009.

So the managers of these enterprises are out, and the shareholders are sent to the dogs, losing 79.9 percent of their holdings to the Treasury. The bondholders — most central banks and commercial banks around the world — are safe, by Government decree. The alternative would have been a liquidation of dollar holdings on an unimaginable scale.

Predictably, bank shares have risen sharply around the world, while the dollar has lost some of its recent glitter in the markets, reflecting the new self-imposed straitjacket binding the Government’s hands for the foreseeable future.

Henry Paulson explained the thinking behind the move. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities are held by central banks and investors around the world. Investors have purchased securities of these enterprises in part because the ambiguities in their congressional charters created a perception of government backing. Because the U.S. Government created these ambiguities, we have a responsibility to both avert and ultimately address the systemic risk now posed by the scale and breadth of the holdings of GSE debt and mortgage-backed securities.”

He has also committed the Treasury to pumping up to $100 billion into each of the GSEs in the event that their capital ratios fall short.

Fannie and Freddie will now be able “moderately” to increase their lending.

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Classic clocks — an investment for hard times

Longcase Clock Many investors are now looking for reliable stores of value for preserving their cash.

Gold is now touching $1000 an ounce. Pundits are even forecasting a price of up to $2000 over the next few years, although that may be regarded as far-fetched.

But have you considered classic clocks? Longcase (grandfather), grandmother, and other top-range historical timepieces?

Expert horologist David Cooper comments, “People often don’t realize that a high-class timepiece, such as a longcase clock, holds its value and is a very good investment in the long run.”

Older clocks score over other antiques as investments because, as well as serving as fine pieces of furniture, they also have utility value as timekeepers.

The first mechanical clocks were introduced on the cusp of the 13th and 14th centuries. But it was the invention of the pendulum in the mid 17th century which brought a dramatic improvement in the accuracy of timekeeping. Clock makers went to extraordinary lengths to gain the smallest advance in technology. The future of the British Empire depended on mastery of the seas, and an accurate clock enabled longitude to be determined with life-saving precision.

America was the first country to make mass-produced clocks when Eli Terry of Connecticut shipped an order of 4000 in 1806.

Traditional clocks come in all sizes and shapes, and modern reproductions are often of very high quality. The investor who wants to clock up a profit need look no further than a specialist horology showroom somewhere on a local Main Street.

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