In the U.S. and Britain a recession is defined as when the data records two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So we can only call it a recession when we’re six months in — and then it’s usually already over.

It’s said that this definition was deliberately put about by advisers to President Johnson in the 1960s to allow him wriggle room when events were not neat and symmetrical — which is the the most likely case.

For example, if within a six-month period one month bucks the trend and shows a slight positive number, it can’t be a recession no matter how bad conditions are across the economy. And the quarters down have to synch with the “official” quarters from January through December. Different combinations of months don’t count apparently, even though they could skew the result.

However, we know that because of population and productivity growth, the U.S. needs to expand by about 2.5pc just to keep unemployment from rising.

We should forget the official definition because even flat growth is negative for the economy and almost everybody in it, and that means less than 2.5pc.

Everything points to conditions being much worse than that right now.

We could just as easily define it as six months of high gold prices — just like the present.

Ronald Reagan had a stab with, “A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.”

Ominously he added, “A depression is when you lose your’s.”

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“On the day when the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, reported a staggering 2.5pc drop in house prices in March alone, the IMF warns governments, central banks and regulators that they now face a test of their mettle unique in modern times.”

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