A new book by Nobel prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz tracks the effect that the war in Iraq has had on the American economy. The Three Trillion Dollar War — The True Cost Of The Iraq Conflict outlines the immense downside across the globe of this policy.

In terms of the current credit crunch, which arose out the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, many had blamed Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, for keeping rates too low for too long. Combined with steeply rising house prices this gave the banks a one-way bet for lending to the trailer-park poor.

However, it’s clear from Stiglitz’s book that the low rate regime was engineered to mask the terrifying cost to the American economy of the wars in the Middle East.

We can now see the extent of the disaster to American interests the war is continuing to cause. The conflicts have led to a strengthening of Gulf, Chinese and other sovereign wealth funds which have bought up large chunks of prime U.S. assets, including blue-chip bank stock, while, in some cases, simultaneously enjoying a bonanza from higher and higher oil prices.

In ten years these bank stocks should prove exceptionally rich investments as they recover from current adverse credit conditions. The war has given them a one-way bet.

Joseph Stiglitz works out the numbers and they make depressing reading.

The American economy is now in recession. A slew of new data clearly reveals both a marked slowdown in activity, combined with a rise in inflation — something not seen since the stubborn “stagflation” period of the 1970s.

Despite all this, some economists expect a robust return to growth later in the year off the back of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed and a financial package from the President that will see checks delivered to taxpayers, and others on low incomes, by June.

We shall see.

The United States’ Federal Reserve has intervened dramatically to cut base rates by a huge 75 basis points or 0.75 percent, indicating that it regards recession as more likely than not. This is the single biggest cut by the Fed in 20 years.

The markets are less than impressed, however, regarding it as a panic measure. The White House has also weighed in with the President saying he is considering an even bigger fiscal stimulus than the recently announced $150billion.

America means business.

Syntagma has an in-depth analysis of the upcoming recession. Here’s a taster :

As we’ve been saying here in Syntagma for some months, a long, deep worldwide recession now looks more likely than not. Opinions are hardening among key players, principally in America and Britain.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal proclaimed : “U.S. warning signs point toward deep recession”.

Now even the insurance companies, or Monolines, that underwrite possible defaults, are also in trouble, with two of the biggest in the U.S. said to be close to Chapter 11 status (a form of bankruptcy protection against creditors).

The US has entered its first major economic recession for 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill is the first of the big banks to declare that a recession in the world’s biggest economy is already underway. David Rosenberg, the bank’s chief North American economist, claims that the weakening employment scene and declining retail sales show that the economy has tipped into its first month of recession. [A recession is defined as two successive months of negative growth].

Rosenberg says,”According to our analysis, this isn’t even a forecast any more but is a present day reality”.

For an analysis of the coming recession on both sides of the Atlantic see John Evans’s article in Syntagma.

He writes, “All banks are now hoarding cash like Ebeneezer Scrooge on a bad day and virtually ceasing to lend. With house price indices slithering down a slope like novice ice skaters, and inter-bank rates running at around 8 percent, this has become a total banking crisis worldwide, and that has the potential for real evil in our economies.”

Read the article here.

It’s a phrase we hear all the time, Sub-Prime, usually associated with the worldwide credit crunch now current across the mortgage market. But where did it come from?

Some historians think it can be traced back to the Old West and the vast cattle markets of of Chicago and Nebraska. Traders labeled the finest cuts of meat as “prime” and the lesser cuts “choice” — something of a euphemism, obviously.

However, “choice” was usually translated in buyers’ minds as “sub-prime”, that is, something no-one really wanted.

Then “prime” was adopted by American bankers to describe rates charged to their most creditworthy customers. All others became “sub-prime”.

British banks apparently have more fruity terms. What in the States is called “sub-prime” is in England labeled a “lemon”.

There are a lot of lemons around just now.