In the U.S. and Britain a recession is defined as when the data records two consecutive quarters of negative growth. So we can only call it a recession when we’re six months in — and then it’s usually already over.

It’s said that this definition was deliberately put about by advisers to President Johnson in the 1960s to allow him wriggle room when events were not neat and symmetrical — which is the the most likely case.

For example, if within a six-month period one month bucks the trend and shows a slight positive number, it can’t be a recession no matter how bad conditions are across the economy. And the quarters down have to synch with the “official” quarters from January through December. Different combinations of months don’t count apparently, even though they could skew the result.

However, we know that because of population and productivity growth, the U.S. needs to expand by about 2.5pc just to keep unemployment from rising.

We should forget the official definition because even flat growth is negative for the economy and almost everybody in it, and that means less than 2.5pc.

Everything points to conditions being much worse than that right now.

We could just as easily define it as six months of high gold prices — just like the present.

Ronald Reagan had a stab with, “A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.”

Ominously he added, “A depression is when you lose your’s.”

JP Morgan, America’s third biggest bank, has been hit again by the subprime crisis.

This time the hit is more than $4.6 billion (£2.6bn), taking its credit crunch losses to around $15 billion since August — an unparalleled rate of attrition.

Meanwhile, the bank’s profits tumbled by 51pc to $2.5 billion in Q1, eased slightly by a winning bet on the flotation of card giant, Visa.

Since the Fed is backing JP’s rescue of Bear with $30 billion, this will send a shudder down the spine of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman.

Signs that the crunch is biting even deeper are coming across the board. House building in the U.S. is now at its lowest level for 17 years. JP Morgan suffered a 20pc reversal in its credit card division, while its retail banking arm slipped by over a billion dollars.

JP’s chief, Jamie Dimon, said, “The Economic environment will continue to be weak and the capital markets will remain under stress.”

With Britain beginning to feel the strain, along with some European economies, it’s now clear that the worst is still to come.

A version of this article has appeared in Moneyizor — Money, The Big Picture

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Many investors are now looking for reliable stores of value for preserving their cash.

Gold is now touching $1000 an ounce. Pundits are even forecasting a price of up to $2000 over the next few years, although that may be regarded as far-fetched.

But have you considered classic clocks? Longcase (grandfather), grandmother, and other top-range historical timepieces?

Expert horologist David Cooper comments, “People often don’t realize that a high-class timepiece, such as a longcase clock, holds its value and is a very good investment in the long run.”

Older clocks score over other antiques as investments because, as well as serving as fine pieces of furniture, they also have utility value as timekeepers.

The first mechanical clocks were introduced on the cusp of the 13th and 14th centuries. But it was the invention of the pendulum in the mid 17th century which brought a dramatic improvement in the accuracy of timekeeping. Clock makers went to extraordinary lengths to gain the smallest advance in technology. The future of the British Empire depended on mastery of the seas, and an accurate clock enabled longitude to be determined with life-saving precision.

America was the first country to make mass-produced clocks when Eli Terry of Connecticut shipped an order of 4000 in 1806.

Traditional clocks come in all sizes and shapes, and modern reproductions are often of very high quality. The investor who wants to clock up a profit need look no further than a specialist horology showroom somewhere on a local Main Street.