The long predicted influenza pandemic appears to be upon us, with more than 20 cases reported in the US at this writing. Last year, the World Bank predicted a pandemic would affect the world economy by a 5pc drop in output.

The US government has declared a health emergency, with Homeland Security chief effectively saying “Don’t panic.”

The danger is a kind of pandemic protectionism spreads around the world, adding to its economic woes. Already pork from Mexico has been banned by China and Russia. The ban has now been extended to Texas, California and Kansas. We can be sure that is only the beginning.

A serious 1918 type of pandemic, which killed millions around the globe, would really challenge the world economy and set it back a decade at least.

Let us hope it doesn’t come to that.

So what is the state of the U.S. economy right now, given that shares are down around 20pc from October peaks?

Car sales are at a 10-year low, with General Motors’ shares selling at levels last experienced in the 1950s. GM, Ford and Chrysler may just be running into liquidity crises as cash flow fades, according to Wall Street sources.

With the climate change bandwagon running strongly, it will take time to shut down the 4×4 factories and increase output at plants producing smaller cars. Profits will fall as a result.

Housing starts have fallen by half from their January 2006 peak. The National Association of Home Builders’ index is at an all-time low. Inventories of unsold houses remain high, with foreclosures rising.

Most of the foreclosures and price falls are centered in California, Nevada (especially Las Vegas) and Florida.

Average prices in Manhattan continue to rise, driven in part by Europeans and others. Considering that a euro buys around $1.60 worth of property in New York, this must be a bonanza for cash-rich Europeans.

Last week’s jobs report was generally in line with expectations, essentially bad, but not cliff-falling territory.

Non-farm payrolls dropped by 62,000 in June, and earlier reports of lost jobs were revised upward by 52,000.

Since December, non-farm payrolls are down by 438,000. The unemployment rate remains at 5.5pc, not particularly high by historic standards.

A mixed picture then. Not as healthy as one might expect, but not the worst-case scenario either.

However, with the credit crunch bill now forecast to reach $1.6trillion, the outlook may be blacker than many realize.

A version of this article appeared in Syntagma recently.

Gold rushes come and go in the world’s innovation capital, California. But when they go … they really go.

The City of Vallejo in California has filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, making history it seems. Half Moon Bay, home to some internet digerati, may well be next. According to John Moorlach, Orange County board chief, “This is the tip of the iceberg: everybody is going to line up for Chapter 9 in California.”

What can it mean to people on the ground when their city goes belly up? What of their assets, houses etcetera? It will be interesting to watch this pan out.

According to Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers American house prices are likely to fall 25pc from peak to trough. With between 10m and 12m households in negative equity already, there’s still a way to go.

Shares across the developed world are set for big falls too. Albert Edward Société Générale’s global strategist says, “Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios. We see a global recession unfolding. Liquidity will drain away and crush the twin emerging market and commodity bubbles. The recent hope that ‘the worst might be over’ is truly staggering. Profits are disintegrating.”

Ambrose Evans Pritchard of the Telegraph (UK) — ever the Cassandra — says pointedly, “Britain, Europe, Japan, and China will go down before America comes back up. This is turning into a synchronised bust, after all. The Global Slump of 2008-09 is under way.”

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are still stubbornly refusing to cut rates because of inflation fears, which will be the least of our miseries in the next two years and should abate soon as global demand falls off the much-imagined cliff.

It’s probably true that Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve has saved the U.S. and other countries from another Great Depression. But nothing can stop a slump now because it’s already happening.

Many investors are now looking for reliable stores of value for preserving their cash.

Gold is now touching $1000 an ounce. Pundits are even forecasting a price of up to $2000 over the next few years, although that may be regarded as far-fetched.

But have you considered classic clocks? Longcase (grandfather), grandmother, and other top-range historical timepieces?

Expert horologist David Cooper comments, “People often don’t realize that a high-class timepiece, such as a longcase clock, holds its value and is a very good investment in the long run.”

Older clocks score over other antiques as investments because, as well as serving as fine pieces of furniture, they also have utility value as timekeepers.

The first mechanical clocks were introduced on the cusp of the 13th and 14th centuries. But it was the invention of the pendulum in the mid 17th century which brought a dramatic improvement in the accuracy of timekeeping. Clock makers went to extraordinary lengths to gain the smallest advance in technology. The future of the British Empire depended on mastery of the seas, and an accurate clock enabled longitude to be determined with life-saving precision.

America was the first country to make mass-produced clocks when Eli Terry of Connecticut shipped an order of 4000 in 1806.

Traditional clocks come in all sizes and shapes, and modern reproductions are often of very high quality. The investor who wants to clock up a profit need look no further than a specialist horology showroom somewhere on a local Main Street.