The United States’ Federal Reserve has intervened dramatically to cut base rates by a huge 75 basis points or 0.75 percent, indicating that it regards recession as more likely than not. This is the single biggest cut by the Fed in 20 years.

The markets are less than impressed, however, regarding it as a panic measure. The White House has also weighed in with the President saying he is considering an even bigger fiscal stimulus than the recently announced $150billion.

America means business.

Syntagma has an in-depth analysis of the upcoming recession. Here’s a taster :

As we’ve been saying here in Syntagma for some months, a long, deep worldwide recession now looks more likely than not. Opinions are hardening among key players, principally in America and Britain.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal proclaimed : “U.S. warning signs point toward deep recession”.

Now even the insurance companies, or Monolines, that underwrite possible defaults, are also in trouble, with two of the biggest in the U.S. said to be close to Chapter 11 status (a form of bankruptcy protection against creditors).

The US has entered its first major economic recession for 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill is the first of the big banks to declare that a recession in the world’s biggest economy is already underway. David Rosenberg, the bank’s chief North American economist, claims that the weakening employment scene and declining retail sales show that the economy has tipped into its first month of recession. [A recession is defined as two successive months of negative growth].

Rosenberg says,”According to our analysis, this isn’t even a forecast any more but is a present day reality”.

For an analysis of the coming recession on both sides of the Atlantic see John Evans’s article in Syntagma.

He writes, “All banks are now hoarding cash like Ebeneezer Scrooge on a bad day and virtually ceasing to lend. With house price indices slithering down a slope like novice ice skaters, and inter-bank rates running at around 8 percent, this has become a total banking crisis worldwide, and that has the potential for real evil in our economies.”

Read the article here.

Venture capitalist, Paul Graham believes there will be more and more web startups.

So my first prediction about the future of web startups is pretty straightforward: there will be a lot of them. When starting a startup was expensive, you had to get the permission of investors to do it. Now the only threshold you have to get over is whether you have the courage to. Even that threshold is getting lower, as people watch others take the plunge and survive. In the last batch of startups we funded, we had several founders who said they’d thought of applying before, but weren’t sure and got jobs instead. It was only after hearing reports of friends who’d done it that they decided to try it themselves.

He thinks that, although, starting a web business is difficult, it’s nothing like as soul-destroying as a 9-5 job.

In a startup you have lots of worries, but you don’t have that feeling that your life is flying by like you do in a big company. Plus in a startup you could make orders of magnitude more money. If the number of startups increases dramatically, then the people whose job is to judge startups are going to have to get better at it. I’m thinking particularly of investors and acquirers. We now get on the order of 1000 applications a year. What are we going to do if we get 10,000?

It’s hard to imagine the internet ever getting full up, so the prospects are there for anyone with a good idea, technical know-how and the initiative to carry it through.

Read the whole of the article.

Countless individuals have dreamed of quitting the day job to develop a new business online.

And why not? Working from the comfort of your own home, with low costs and being the master of your own time, must be better than slaving away in a 9-5 job, mustn’t it?

How about the complications? The technical problems, long lead-ins to a sustainable income, and, of course, the intense competition for a large, but limited pot of money on the internet.

John Evans, who founded Syntagma Media — an internet content provider — has given an interview about the trials of creating an online business to Gerry Reynolds, business consultant and retail analyst.

Here’s a preview :

Gerry : What are the economics of an online income stream? [...]

John : If you set no upper limits, you’re really at the mercy of events. It’s no good having a $10m business if your costs are $11m. Mr Micawber defined that problem 150 years ago.

The trick is to set an upper boundary that gives you the best split between receipts and obligations, building in the vagaries of the tax system, of course, and depending on the amount of effort you can comfortably provide. Everyone will reach a different conclusion, but it has to be within your comfort zone. You are, after all, in this for the long haul.

Read both posts here : #