The long predicted influenza pandemic appears to be upon us, with more than 20 cases reported in the US at this writing. Last year, the World Bank predicted a pandemic would affect the world economy by a 5pc drop in output.

The US government has declared a health emergency, with Homeland Security chief effectively saying “Don’t panic.”

The danger is a kind of pandemic protectionism spreads around the world, adding to its economic woes. Already pork from Mexico has been banned by China and Russia. The ban has now been extended to Texas, California and Kansas. We can be sure that is only the beginning.

A serious 1918 type of pandemic, which killed millions around the globe, would really challenge the world economy and set it back a decade at least.

Let us hope it doesn’t come to that.

As Gordon Brown, former British Chancellor, now Prime Minister, heads for Washington to try to convince the new adminstration to set up a “global regulatory system” the Americans should ask themselves why they should believe him when he failed so spectacularly for 12 years.

At home, Brown has come in for stern criticism in recent days for his failure to stop the immense and growing disaster occurring in the British economy.

Lord Turner, new head of the Financial Services Authority (FSA), blames Brown when Chancellor for the failure of regulation which led to catastrophic losses at Northern Rock, HBOS and RBS.

“They existed within a political philosophy where all the pressure on the FSA was not to say ‘why aren’t you looking at these business models?’, but ‘why are you being so heavy and intrusive, can’t you make your regulation a bit more light touch?’,” he said.

“We were supervising people like HBOS within a particular philosophy of the way you do regulation, which I think in retrospect was wrong. I think (the FSA’s actions were) a competent execution of a style of regulation and a philosophy in regulation which was, in retrospect, mistaken.”

Similarly, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King claims he has been shouting warnings for years about risky lending without any response from Brown.

It is on the record that Brown delivered a speech in the City urging them to take even greater risks.

The Prime Minister is now trying to cover up the mess by throwing the kitchen sink at sacked RBS boss Fred Goodwin’s enormous pension. Significantly this was done as the Treasury unveiled its third bank bailout in the form of a £325 billion insurance scheme for desperate RBS.

Meanwhile the head of the Audit Commission, Steve Bundred, warned that public debt is at “Armageddon levels” and will exceed two-thirds of the entire annual economic output of the country.

Send this man back with a flea in his ear.

Deflation is now accepted as the biggest threat to Western economies, especially hugely indebted nations, like the U.S. and Britain.

Inflation, which was recently the major enemy, has swiftly retreated, as widely predicted.

Many experts are belatedly waking up to the gravity of the situation. In the UK, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ken Clarke, has dismissed comparisons with the 1970s, ’80s and ’90s, likening current conditions explicitly with 1929/30.

Normally cautious Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, forecasts a 2 percent contraction in the British economy next year, with interest rates falling rapidly to nought percent for the first time in history.

Deflation is now the enemy we must all factor in to our expectations in the near-to-medium terms, even in the dependably buoyant American economy. The Japanese “lost decade” of the 1990s may be set to play out across the world.

Why then is deflation necessarily worse than inflation?

In an era of massive indebtedness, both private and public, deflation increases the burden. As incomes decline, debts remain the same — at levels signed for in better times. It’s the exact opposite of the apparent wealth created during periods of rapidly rising house prices.

Professor Peter Spencer of York University says, “It is going to be absolute murder in Britain if inflation turns negative. The big difference with past episodes is that we are now much more heavily indebted. Few people owned their own houses in 1930s. Debts were miniscule.”

Another symptom of deflation is that consumers wait for lower prices before shopping, causing job-losses in Main Street and yet more bad economic news.

So what can be done either to pre-empt or cure the curse of falling prices across the board?

Curiously, Keynesianism which, in its misunderstood version is disastrous in normal times, does hold out some hope in depressive conditions. Expect central banks to start printing money soon and dropping it from helicopters, if they haven’t started already. Want to buy some rising stock? Buy helicopter shares. [This is not financial advice.]

If you’re one of those noble souls who saved assiduously during the asset bubbles, you will just have to stand by and watch the profligate oafs who caused the problem clean up, while your own responsible hoard of value drains away.

It’s just not fair, but it will probably have to happen “for the greater good”.

Related Stories
Sorry folks there’s a depression in the sea air
The world needs Up-To-A-Pointism
The Kraken Wakes
Depression looms like a yawning abyss

As economies around the world face up to the “perfect storm” slowly building around us, with various “crunches” lethally combining their woes, the word recession is on everyone’s lips.

Does the past tell us anything we ought to know? Here is a list of the five worst slumps of the past century in rough order of magnitude. They may provide some sort of comparison, but we should remember that the current episode may have several years to run:

1 1929-33: Great Depression 11,000 of America’s 25,000 banks closed and number of unemployed rocketed. Result: global depression

2 1989-93: The savings and loans crisis More than 700 lenders failed. The crisis cost more than $160bn. Result: recession

3 Now: Collapse of US sub-prime mortgage market This has spread financial panic worldwide. Result: unclear

4 1980s: Latin American debt crisis The flow of international capital to region dried up, leaving massive debts. Result: global economy weakened

5 1973-74: Secondary banking crisis Slowdown led to three-day week in Britain. Result: recession

Source: Times Archive