Posted in American Economy, Banks, Business, Credit Crunch, Dollar, Housing market on July 16th, 2008
As economies around the world face up to the “perfect storm” slowly building around us, with various “crunches” lethally combining their woes, the word recession is on everyone’s lips.
Does the past tell us anything we ought to know? Here is a list of the five worst slumps of the past century in rough order of magnitude. They may provide some sort of comparison, but we should remember that the current episode may have several years to run:
1 1929-33: Great Depression 11,000 of America’s 25,000 banks closed and number of unemployed rocketed. Result: global depression
2 1989-93: The savings and loans crisis More than 700 lenders failed. The crisis cost more than $160bn. Result: recession
3 Now: Collapse of US sub-prime mortgage market This has spread financial panic worldwide. Result: unclear
4 1980s: Latin American debt crisis The flow of international capital to region dried up, leaving massive debts. Result: global economy weakened
5 1973-74: Secondary banking crisis Slowdown led to three-day week in Britain. Result: recession
Source: Times Archive
Posted in American Economy, Banks, Business, Credit Cards, Credit Crunch, Employment, Money on July 8th, 2008
So what is the state of the U.S. economy right now, given that shares are down around 20pc from October peaks?
Car sales are at a 10-year low, with General Motors’ shares selling at levels last experienced in the 1950s. GM, Ford and Chrysler may just be running into liquidity crises as cash flow fades, according to Wall Street sources.
With the climate change bandwagon running strongly, it will take time to shut down the 4×4 factories and increase output at plants producing smaller cars. Profits will fall as a result.
Housing starts have fallen by half from their January 2006 peak. The National Association of Home Builders’ index is at an all-time low. Inventories of unsold houses remain high, with foreclosures rising.
Most of the foreclosures and price falls are centered in California, Nevada (especially Las Vegas) and Florida.
Average prices in Manhattan continue to rise, driven in part by Europeans and others. Considering that a euro buys around $1.60 worth of property in New York, this must be a bonanza for cash-rich Europeans.
Last week’s jobs report was generally in line with expectations, essentially bad, but not cliff-falling territory.
Non-farm payrolls dropped by 62,000 in June, and earlier reports of lost jobs were revised upward by 52,000.
Since December, non-farm payrolls are down by 438,000. The unemployment rate remains at 5.5pc, not particularly high by historic standards.
A mixed picture then. Not as healthy as one might expect, but not the worst-case scenario either.
However, with the credit crunch bill now forecast to reach $1.6trillion, the outlook may be blacker than many realize.